The global economy is undergoing a rapid and technological transition. India and China are playing a decisive role in this change among the latest technology superstars. In many respects, China is five to six years ahead of India, while in some areas India is ahead and in others closing the deficit. While China's exports are high for production, India is the leading business partner. Competition for foreign direct investment is increasing, including large share of R&D. The Indian multinational, especially those with direct investment, is well ahead of Chinese companies not only in business services but also in the pharmacy, automotive and steel sectors.
USA India China - Sci Fi Tech X |
India is
likely to maintain its growth at 8% to 10% in the next two to five years, while
China is likely to arrange a "massive landing" on a massive
export-oriented growth country. Base growth, including growth for at least two
years
Both
countries face obstacles to maintain high growth, but India is on the path to
more balanced development than private-sector investment, which includes
much-needed infrastructure. China achieved huge growth of 10% to 11%, but half
or more of that growth was accounted for by product exports and related
investment. External and internal pressures are gearing up to incentivize family-based
development, including through the yuan's wider assessment, while facing a
severe setback.
The United
States needs a strong and comprehensive policy response to China and India as
advanced technology rapidly advances to the super state. In the short- and
medium-term, economic policy issues will dominate, while long-term foreign
policy and national security issues will be more important.
The current
economic policy context of the United States involves some inconsistent
combination of large and growing joint benefits from open trade, and the
balance of international technology frameworks further hurts US technology
leaders and the manufacturing and business services sectors, On a larger scale.
Thus, the policy response needs to maximize the formal benefits of free trade,
while adjusting the policy framework so that market forces can be competitive
rather than competitive in the flow of trade and investment.
The most
urgent economic policy challenge is the exchange rate policy, which falls into
the category of unfair government manipulation. The International Monetary Fund
(IMF) prohibits currency formation in order to take advantage of unfair
competition in trade, especially through large-scale purchases of foreign
exchange from central banks. China, along with a few other Asian trading
partners, has been trading their currency at a historically unusual level. The
IMF and the World Trade Organization must make a decisive decision to end
currency trade in order to trade Pakistan, the United States, Europe, Canada
and others will suffer negatively.
For trade
policy, the formal benefits of free trade should be further enhanced by
bilateral free trade agreements with the US, especially in the middle of the
Pacific, as the United States avoids any other Asian trade deal. US-Korean FTA
congressional approval is campaigning for this path. The long-term objective is
to strengthen multilateral FTAs in multilateral and free trade agreements, at
least for non-agricultural trade.
Helpful
household economic policy agendas are also needed. In recent years, trading
partners, especially China and India, have boosted their economies for more
investment-friendly investments, while the United States, in many areas, has
been friendly in investment. Specific policies for the United States that need
change to strengthen export competition and technological innovation include
public support for education, basic R&D, energy, corporate tax and tariff
reforms.
In the long
run, the technological economy of the world economy is leading to a radical
change to the global economic and political order. The New World Order is the
United States, China, and India - more focus on the three existing or advanced
technology superstars - along with the European Union, a modern technology
superpower, although not a unified military and foreign state policy. These
four latest technological superpowers, with the most advanced technological
regions in North America, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia - are the
main economic powers.
These
momentous developments are leading to a new order of international relations.
In terms of nation states, the new Asia-Pacific Triangle of the United States,
China, and India will increasingly play a decisive role in the course of
international events. And in this context there would be a very different world
order of nations if all three were democracies, based on the rule of law and
individual freedom, rather than facing the current political divide between the
two largest democracies and the largest authoritarian state.
India will get edge from Lithium discovery!!!
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